COVID-19 101 LIFT & DURATION

Think of the impact of COVID-19 in terms racers can relate to, the profile of a camshaft.

Lift = the rate it which the virus increases/spreads. A few weeks ago on this topic I use the term "How many days does it take to double" to quantify the rate/metric at which it spreads.

Duration = the length of the time it effects the population.

Increase and accelerate the lift and it negatively impacts our Health Care System to cope with the increased number of patients (fewer Doctors and Nurses to deal with the infected). The Medical Profession call this "Sensis" (Patients per Doctor or Nurse)

Increase the duration and the economy suffers over a longer period of time (People being unemployed over a longer period of time). If bad enough Economists call this "A depression" like they did in 1929.

The real trick is to reduce the total area under the curve, and THAT is what the Leader of a Country (The President) tries to do. Fewer people infected for a shorter period of time, lower lift with less duration. He relies on his Medical Team to deal with the associated health issues (Lift) and his Financial Experts to deal with the protracted impact on the Economy (duration).

Lift and Duration.

The game changer here is a CURE, it flattens the lobe.

Bob

This message has been edited. Last edited by: RPROGAS,

quote:

Originally posted by RPROGAS:
COVID-19 101 LIFT & DURATION

Think of the impact of COVID-19 in terms racers can relate to, the profile of a camshaft.

Lift = the rate it which the virus increases/spreads. A few weeks ago on this topic I use the term "How many days does it take to double" to quantify the rate/metric at which it spreads.

Duration = the length of the time it effects the population.

Increase and accelerate the lift and it negatively impacts our Health Care System to cope with the increased number of patients (fewer Doctors and Nurses to deal with the infected). The Medical Profession call this "Sensis" (Patients per Doctor or Nurse)

Increase the duration and the economy suffers over a longer period of time (People being unemployed over a longer period of time). If bad enough Economists call this "A depression" like they did in 1929.

The real trick is to reduce the total area under the curve, and THAT is what the Leader of a Country (The President) tries to do. Fewer people infected for a shorter period of time, lower lift with less duration. He relies on his Medical Team to deal with the associated health issues (Lift) and his Financial Experts to deal with the protracted impact on the Economy (duration).

Lift and Duration.

The game changer here is a CURE, it flattens the lobe.

Bob

That was awesome.

quote:

Originally posted by 442OLDS:
There seems to be 2 different types of people on this.

1) Those that are aware of the risks,take precautions like washing their hands,and go on living their life.

2) Those that freak out-Stop all travel,do not go out to eat,hoard supplies and go on lockdown at their home.

Are you a Number 1 or a Number 2?

You should make up political polls if you believe these are the only two ways in which someone can react to what is happening.

quote:

Originally posted by CURTIS REED:

quote:

Originally posted by 442OLDS:
There seems to be 2 different types of people on this.

1) Those that are aware of the risks,take precautions like washing their hands,and go on living their life.

2) Those that freak out-Stop all travel,do not go out to eat,hoard supplies and go on lockdown at their home.

Are you a Number 1 or a Number 2?

You should make up political polls if you believe these are the only two ways in which someone can react to what is happening.

Hey,I'm not trying to be political.

What are some of the other "options" that you or others will be doing in the next 6 months or more?

This is exactly what is wrong with the conversation in America about this. Just like politics, some think we should debate this from opposite corners and fling our poo at each other like is the norm for every political issue today. Either you are all in or all out.

Not so!!

I'm a team player even if I don't totally agree with the teams direction. My plant is working. So I wash. Cough into my elbow. Social distance all that is possible. I am aware of surfaces. We question all contractors that come to the plant about their travels and if they are showing any symptoms.
And yet....
Certainly I have questioned if the damage that we are doing to our economy is completely warranted. Maybe we should be loosening up on the reigns? Without good data, it's really hard to make educated calls about this.
But.......we keep going back to testing. Ok fine. Let's test everyone when we can. What do we do with that data? Obviously there are way more cases of infection than we know. Testing will show that. And? We can quarantine all that test positive. And? Will we see spikes after? Should we just protect our most vulnerable and go on life as usual after we get past our initial surge?

We don't know. And asking the questions does not make us a science denier. Nor does it mean that we are being reckless with our own actions. We don't need to pick teams. We can be free/independent and critical thinkers.

quote:

Originally posted by 442OLDS:

quote:

Originally posted by CURTIS REED:

quote:

Originally posted by 442OLDS:
There seems to be 2 different types of people on this.

1) Those that are aware of the risks,take precautions like washing their hands,and go on living their life.

2) Those that freak out-Stop all travel,do not go out to eat,hoard supplies and go on lockdown at their home.

Are you a Number 1 or a Number 2?

You should make up political polls if you believe these are the only two ways in which someone can react to what is happening.

Hey,I'm not trying to be political.

What are some of the other "options" that you or others will be doing in the next 6 months or more?

My family and I do not fit into one of those two options.

We are close to number 2, but do not have an unusual amount of any food or household item. Go to the store when we need to, go to the Post Office to ship items from our small business, made a couple food shelf donations, pick up a couple pizzas. Otherwise we are pretty hunkered down at home or outside in our neighborhood.

For the record, I think not going out to eat has resulted in about a 2-3 lb weight loss thus far for me. And we don't eat out that often.

So we have a friend who is currently in the hospital who has tested positive for COVID-19, and while he will more than likely make a full recovery he had a simple message to share. He like many going through this contracted the virus a few weeks ago long before any stay at home or social distancing orders were given. It has been determined that he contracted it close to 3 weeks ago, and just started showing signs 3 days ago. Looking back over activities and the people you come into contact with over these weeks is either staggering, or very limited, that is up to how YOU took the warnings and adjusted your lifestyle. Because I had met with him almost three weeks ago now not only did I have to contact my Dr, to be tested but so would anyone I have been in contact with IF my tests were positive. Thankfully mine were negative this time. While Tammy and I have severely reduced our time out due to this virus, there are still issues that concern us such as whenever we need something from the grocery store that can not be ordered on Amazon. EVERYTIME you leave your house for ANYTHING you are putting not only yourself, but EVERYONE you come into contact with at risk. Make the right choice, and STAY HOME, the life you save could be MINE......

Now since he had contracted this before any social distancing or stay at home orders, he was conducting life as usual. as a result he told me that the team that is contacting those he came into contact with now need to contact close to 1000 people from his 3 weeks of activities. He said it is unbelievable that even in 1/3 (300 of these people did get the virus form him, that it could ultimately spread to well over 30,000 people just from his activities over that 3 week period. These are the facts from his medical team and the people working with the CDC and other agencies doing the investigations of those he came into contact with.

While YES this is killing our great economy, and YES our elected officials have a task that I would not want to wish on anyone. They need to decide IF slowing the spread of this virus and potentially saving lives are more important than our now very fragile economy. My grandfather used to set me down and talk from time to time as I was focused on nothing but money when I was much younger. He used to tell me to take the time to enjoy life, after all what good is ALL the money in the world when your DEAD? It actually took me several years to realize what he meant, and to this day I remember his advice and do what is right for me and my family. These are not easy times for anyone but if we keep our faith, and all do our part as the great nation we are we will all come through this.

quote:

Originally posted by 442OLDS:

quote:

Originally posted by CURTIS REED:

quote:

Originally posted by 442OLDS:
There seems to be 2 different types of people on this.

1) Those that are aware of the risks,take precautions like washing their hands,and go on living their life.

2) Those that freak out-Stop all travel,do not go out to eat,hoard supplies and go on lockdown at their home.

Are you a Number 1 or a Number 2?

You should make up political polls if you believe these are the only two ways in which someone can react to what is happening.

Hey,I'm not trying to be political.

What are some of the other "options" that you or others will be doing in the next 6 months or more?

I wasn't saying you were trying to be political I was saying it was worded like a lot of the polls. One extreme or the other. As has been stated already there are points in the middle that people are doing.

You wrote it as, if you aren't a #1 like me then you "hoard supplies, freak out" and are doing it wrong. All the steps that my family are taking are not just to protect us. They are to protect others also. Staying home and decreasing the possibility of contraction is buying time for a vaccine or cure to be developed. JMO though.

Trump should do his job and listen to the experts but that’s not happening! New York is a great example!

You get an AMEN Freddie!

Bob

quote:

Originally posted by CURTIS REED:

quote:

Originally posted by 442OLDS:

quote:

Originally posted by CURTIS REED:

quote:

Originally posted by 442OLDS:
There seems to be 2 different types of people on this.

1) Those that are aware of the risks,take precautions like washing their hands,and go on living their life.

2) Those that freak out-Stop all travel,do not go out to eat,hoard supplies and go on lockdown at their home.

Are you a Number 1 or a Number 2?

You should make up political polls if you believe these are the only two ways in which someone can react to what is happening.

Hey,I'm not trying to be political.

What are some of the other "options" that you or others will be doing in the next 6 months or more?

I wasn't saying you were trying to be political I was saying it was worded like a lot of the polls. One extreme or the other. As has been stated already there are points in the middle that people are doing.

You wrote it as, if you aren't a #1 like me then you "hoard supplies, freak out" and are doing it wrong. All the steps that my family are taking are not just to protect us. They are to protect others also. Staying home and decreasing the possibility of contraction is buying time for a vaccine or cure to be developed. JMO though.

Okay,I see what you mean.Believe me,I am "social distancing ".

But 1,2,3,4 months from now,the threat will STILL be there.Maybe even years.

I read one report that said EVERYONE will eventually get Coronavirus.

At some point,statistics will say get back to normal.

Some will take that as being reckless and that America should not return until the all clear signal is given.

By that time,it may be too late.

Someone at the local factory that lives in my area just had symptoms and tested positive. They closed the plant for a few days to sanitize it.

quote:

Originally posted by 442OLDS:

quote:

Originally posted by CURTIS REED:

quote:

Originally posted by 442OLDS:

quote:

Originally posted by CURTIS REED:

quote:

Originally posted by 442OLDS:
There seems to be 2 different types of people on this.

1) Those that are aware of the risks,take precautions like washing their hands,and go on living their life.

2) Those that freak out-Stop all travel,do not go out to eat,hoard supplies and go on lockdown at their home.

Are you a Number 1 or a Number 2?

You should make up political polls if you believe these are the only two ways in which someone can react to what is happening.

Hey,I'm not trying to be political.

What are some of the other "options" that you or others will be doing in the next 6 months or more?

I wasn't saying you were trying to be political I was saying it was worded like a lot of the polls. One extreme or the other. As has been stated already there are points in the middle that people are doing.

You wrote it as, if you aren't a #1 like me then you "hoard supplies, freak out" and are doing it wrong. All the steps that my family are taking are not just to protect us. They are to protect others also. Staying home and decreasing the possibility of contraction is buying time for a vaccine or cure to be developed. JMO though.

Okay,I see what you mean.Believe me,I am "social distancing ".

But 1,2,3,4 months from now,the threat will STILL be there.Maybe even years. I read one report that said EVERYONE will eventually get Coronavirus. At some point,statistics will say get back to normal. Some will take that as being reckless and that America should not return until the all clear signal is given. By that time,it may be too late.

Possibly. Possibly all true. We just don't know right now and the unknown is always worse.

I believe if things go right by what is being done many people will say we did it for nothing. That means it worked.

Stay safe man.

Curtis

We can't just leave all decisions up to the doctors. They are single minded, and should be. But they are only one seat at the table. There are other important things at stake. We always need to weigh all the costs in a pragmatic way.

And I just want to add that I really appreciate these message boards in order to be able to express your opinion.

I was spending A LOT of time on Facebook the last few years and it is a total waste of time because they censor and remove your posts if "they" don't believe what you believe.

From our daughter living in Rome.

In Italy, if you are caught and arrested leaving your home the fine (First offense) is 3600 Euros = $3888 US.

Every gas station in Italy is now closed.

Bob

FACT CHECK: Most illness caused by Coronavirus is mild. If you think you have COVID-19 and your illness is mild, and you are not older or with an underlying health condition of concern, you do not need to see your doctor and you do not need to get tested. Please stay at home.

quote:

Originally posted by 442OLDS:
FACT CHECK: Most illness caused by Coronavirus is mild. If you think you have COVID-19 and your illness is mild, and you are not older or with an underlying health condition of concern, you do not need to see your doctor and you do not need to get tested. Please stay at home.

YES!
I have to say, I have had a mild cold recently, not at all unusual. Same with a few coworkers and allergies are starting to kick up now. Can't say for sure that it isn't. Not sure that every sniffle keeps us home.

quote:

Originally posted by 442OLDS:
FACT CHECK: Most illness caused by Coronavirus is mild. If you think you have COVID-19 and your illness is mild, and you are not older or with an underlying health condition of concern, you do not need to see your doctor and you do not need to get tested. Please stay at home.