quote:

Originally posted by Trans Lady:

And that's why Leftugees are flooding red states like mines.

And the crazy thing is they probably bring their voting habits with them.

This is something that genuinely puzzles me.

Somebody leaves a bad situation, that they recognize was a bad situation. Kind of like Cubans leaving Cuba to swim to the Florida coast. And yet they would vote for exactly what they are trying to escape? I don't get that. Take care. Tom Worthington

quote:

Originally posted by Tom396:

quote:

Originally posted by Trans Lady:

And that's why Leftugees are flooding red states like mines.

And the crazy thing is they probably bring their voting habits with them.

This is something that genuinely puzzles me.

Somebody leaves a bad situation, that they recognize was a bad situation. Kind of like Cubans leaving Cuba to swim to the Florida coast. And yet they would vote for exactly what they are trying to escape? I don't get that. Take care. Tom Worthington

Well Trump did win Florida thanks to the Cuban voters.

And it’s not just about Trump. Cuban turnout for Republicans translated into down-ballot wins for the party. Republican Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez unseated one-term Democrat Rep. Debbie Mucarsel Powell in Florida’s 26th congressional district race. And Democrats, Rep. Donna Shalala lost to GOP’s Maria Elvira Salazar.

Plus, Republicans won big in state House and Senate races in South Florida.


https://www.politico.com/news/...election-2020-433999

The home prices are not sustainable, in my opinion. Wages haven't kept up and the government is dumping money in the economy.

I don't think it will fall as quickly as 08-12, but it will go something like this:

1. People qualify and buy a house that is oversized and overpriced.
2. Show off the house to friends and family for 12-18 months.
3. List the house. try to resell, because the mortgage that is 45%-55% of their income is making them house poor.
4. Expect to make money or even break even.
5. Realize the market for oversized/overpriced is gone (because many people are in the same situation)
6. Short sell it back to the bank or stop making payments.
7. The banks take loss, and tighten up lending requirements for 4-5 years.
8. Banks get competition and start lending again with 0-3% down. Cycle repeats.

All the houses in my neighborhood are cookie cutter, the only difference is the way the roof gables point. I bought my house for under 100 30+ years ago. 2010-2015 area you could buy the foreclosures for a tad over 100. 2017-now the homes are going for 265 to 315. Even the foreclosures. I keep asking my insurance agent how come my premium keeps going up every year, but never comes back down in the lean times when values fall. Just like temporary taxes, there is no such thing.

quote:

...and the government is dumping money in the economy.

I don't think it will fall as quickly as 08-12, but it will go something like this:

I hope your expectations of a "normal" cycle comes to fruition. However these are extraordinary times. Not only is the govt. "dumping money in the economy" (which they are) but it's mortgage back securities specifically.

Dated 4/28/2021. "The Fed also re-committed to its QE-style bond-buying program, noting "... the Federal Reserve will continue to increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $40 billion per month until ..."

"The Fed Now Owns Nearly One Third of All US Mortgages.", many of them "toxic". And not to forget forbearance. That's $40B per month of free money supporting the housing industry. Like any govt. project, when the money stops things immediately revert back to how they were, or worse. So I hope your 8 point cycle becomes reality.

My opinion was just an opinion.
I totally agree that we are near a bubble.

I feel once all the baby boomers are on Social Security and Medicare for few years, and then the housing marking bubble bursts, it'll be an economic mess.

quote:

Originally posted by Yellow Ticket:
My opinion was just an opinion.
I totally agree that we are near a bubble.

I feel once all the baby boomers are on Social Security and Medicare for few years, and then the housing marking bubble bursts, it'll be an economic mess.

Majority of the boomers are already on social security and Medicare (boomers born 1946-1964)

Millennials are currently the largest generation by population and make up the majority of the working class at ages 25-40 years old

Agree, but my post says "once all" and "for a few years" and "once the housing bubble bursts"

quote:

Originally posted by Trans Lady:

quote:

Originally posted by Tom396:

quote:

Originally posted by Trans Lady:

And that's why Leftugees are flooding red states like mines.

And the crazy thing is they probably bring their voting habits with them.

This is something that genuinely puzzles me.

Somebody leaves a bad situation, that they recognize was a bad situation. Kind of like Cubans leaving Cuba to swim to the Florida coast. And yet they would vote for exactly what they are trying to escape? I don't get that. Take care. Tom Worthington

Well Trump did win Florida thanks to the Cuban voters.

And it’s not just about Trump. Cuban turnout for Republicans translated into down-ballot wins for the party. Republican Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez unseated one-term Democrat Rep. Debbie Mucarsel Powell in Florida’s 26th congressional district race. And Democrats, Rep. Donna Shalala lost to GOP’s Maria Elvira Salazar.

Plus, Republicans won big in state House and Senate races in South Florida.


https://www.politico.com/news/...election-2020-433999

I guess I stated that very poorly. I meant for it to read more like: "It would be like ex-Cubans (and other ex-communists) voting for the same thing they just ran away from." Take care. Tom Worthington

Well, it is not just housing market that may crash. Our whole Economy is in grave Danger. You can not spend 6 TRILLION dollars in first 90 days of Dictator Biden's reign of Terror and expect for people to survive.

Eventually we will have to pay for all they are spending which means
1.) Raising Taxes and Or
2. Cutting Social security, Medicare and all other Government services.

Both will hurt America.

quote:

Eventually we will have to pay for all they are spending which means
1.) Raising Taxes and Or
2. Cutting Social security, Medicare and all other Government services.

Both will hurt America.

Eventually there will be NO paying for it all. We are long past the point of no return. 1) Raising taxes can never accomplish it. In fact running a deficient/debt is a deferred tax. Inflation is a hidden tax as well. 2) There is no political appetite on either side of the isle to cut services. That won't get you reelected. They will simply continue to kick the can down the road until the system self corrects. That will be devastatingly painful. Then the sheeple will look to government to save them while the government is the one that brought on the crisis. It's going to be interesting.

quote:

Originally posted by Don Higgins Crew Chief Pro Software:

Pretty much dead on Don!