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| GM going EV | Login/Join |
| DRR Sportsman |
AWD and advanced traction control. EV cars are capable to monitor wheel speed and G force and control it far more precise than any piston powered car. Stephen Liss jr | |||
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DRR Pro |
I'm not a fan of electric vehicles as a driver but this is just my opinion, they will be the majority of vehicles for sale new in 10 years. Gasoline vehicles will have to be serviced for much longer than that but the transition will be starting very soon. Oil use isn't going away any time soon. There is a charging station 2 blocks from my shop though that has 3 spaces. I haven't stopped and looked at them to see if they charge your card like a gas pump. ____________________________ 2017 and 2018 Osage Casinos Tulsa Raceway Park No-Box Champion 2018 Div4 Goodguys Hammer award winner | |||
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| DRR Top Comp |
They'll do whatever they want, and you'll comply. No matter how absurd, no matter how unlawful the order, you'll do as your told Curtis. I on the other hand, as you already know, won't. If there were more of me, and less of you, the world would be a better place.   | |||
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| DRR Trophy |
Back to Tom Worthington's question about Craig Merrilees Tesla. He has been working on it over the past 2 years. He has a delay box he can connect and disconnect quickly to run Super Pro and Pro. Below is the live feed from Sunday at Sacramento We are working on having live feeds for most all races. We are still working out the camera angles and trying to connect the announce screen. Sunday ET Race Sacramento | |||
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| DRR Sportsman |
This topic of electric vehicles reminds me of when I graduated high school in 1983. I was told that Robotics was the future and EVERYTHING would be done via robots by the year 2000. We are now in 2021 and there are not robots EVERYWHERE. There may be a growing market for electric cars,but I don't see them replacing internal combustion engines in MY lifetime. | |||
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| DRR Trophy |
Thank you 442OLDS for showing that on this site someone can express an opinion concisely and clearly without any political references or misspelled words. But there appears to be a problem with your caps lock. It seems to stick on when you type "every." | |||
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| DRR Top Comp |
https://www.bloomberg.com/grap...is-suddenly-upon-us/ I'm speaking impartially to the evidence, or the hand writing on the wall in other words. They always tell you what they're gonna do, before they do it. Covid brought on peak oil so to speak, or in other works the highest production of oil is behind us. This is how they're trying to spin what they meant by peak oil, when the term was originally used, Peak oil was supposed to be brought on by running out of oil, and the price was based on forecasts for when they forecasted we'd run out. Now they're trying to say our highest oil production is behind us because of covid lockdowns, when they're the ones who locked everyone down for no good reason, so this fact alone should tell any rational thinking person, oil isn't in their plans. They used to talk about the need for electric cars because of their forecasts for when we'd run out of oil (peak oil), so now that we've discovered peak oil was a BS story all a long and there's a nearly infinite supply. Why are all the auto manufacturers gearing up for building electric cars? Because of what I said before, they're in the loop. They know what's coming. They even tell us beforehand. If you put your emotions aside, you'll see it in writing Bloomberg. The handwriting is on the wall. They just cancelled the pipeline - more evidence oil isn't in their future plans. This flu with the fatality rate of the flu, is an agenda, not a pandemic. An agenda to transform the world in the way they see fit. You have no say so.  This message has been edited. Last edited by: Mike Rietow, | |||
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| DRR Trophy |
Here is the complete article. I had to scroll a long ways to find the California reference (it is 38 paragraphs down or over 2400 words in) I'm sorry but I couldn't find a way to post in the graphics Go ahead and read the whole article or just follow the link A year ago, if anyone in the petroleum business had suggested that the moment of Peak Oil had already passed, they would have been laughed right off the drilling rig. Then 2020 happened. Planes stopped flying. Office workers stayed home. “Zooming with the grandkids” replaced driving to see family. A year of global hunkering yielded the sharpest drop in oil consumption since Henry Ford cobbled together the first Model T. At its worst, global demand dropped by a staggering 29 million barrels a day. As a once-in-a-century pandemic played out, British oil giant BP Plc in September made an extraordinary call: Humanity’s thirst for oil may never again return to prior levels. That would make 2019 the high-water mark in oil history. BP wasn’t the only one sounding an alarm. While none of the prominent forecasters were quite as bearish, predictions for peak oil started popping up everywhere. Even OPEC, the unflappably bullish cartel of major oil exporters, suddenly acknowledged an end in sight—albeit still two decades away. Taken together these forecasts mark an emerging view that this year’s drop in oil demand isn’t just another crash-and-grow event as seen throughout history. Covid-19 has accelerated long-term trends that are transforming where our energy comes from. Some of those changes will be permanent. It’s often difficult to recognize civilization-sized shifts in behavior until after they’ve occurred. Until the pandemic none of the major oil forecasters had seen an imminent demand peak. The debate won’t end now, especially with signs that the pandemic will ease in 2021. But if we look back from here and see the oil peak clearly in the past, what follows will be the evidence of how the energy future snuck up on us. The peak no one saw coming Energy analysts usually present multiple scenarios. The gap between each forecast comes down to differing assumptions about government policies, economic conditions and consumer preferences for things such as new electric cars and solar panels. A business-as-usual scenario assumes little impact from policy shifts or new technology. Most analysts had only predicted declining demand for oil in improbably green scenarios that could only be achieved with far stronger global climate policies. What made BP’s 2020 forecast unique is that peak oil now snuck into its business-as-usual baseline. If technologies and pollution rules improve, the dropoff in demand would be even more swift. Sneak Oil Peak BP presents three scenarios for oil demand. Each one is already on the downslope 200EJ 2019 peak Business-as-usual IEA 2020 forecast 150 Rapid 100 Net Zero 2010 2040 Note: Oil demand is shown in exajoules of energy, a unit of measure adopted by BP for analyzing energy demand. Sources: Carbon Brief , BP 2020 Outlook, International Energy Agency The prospect of a 2019 peak went largely overlooked when BP released its highly regarded Energy Outlook in September. Pinpointing it was made more difficult by the fact that the company hadn’t yet included the latest real-world energy data from 2019. The chart above updates the outlook with BP’s own oil figures for last year. It also presents estimates using BP’s calculations in exajoules—a more precise measure of energy consumption than a barrels-per-day figure. Without those changes, BP’s scenario suggested oil demand might plateau for the next decade before declining once and for all. BP didn’t respond to requests for comment. A shakeup in oil accounting Like any forecast, only time will tell if peak oil demand happened already or won’t come until 2040. That inescapable uncertainty is less important than the newfound agreement that a turning point is here. The list of energy analysts who now foresee a peak in oil demand keeps growing. It includes Norway’s state-owned oil company Equinor (peaking around 2027-28), Norwegian energy researcher Rystad Energy (2028), French oil major Total SA (2030), consulting firm McKinsey (2033), clean-energy research group BloombergNEF (2035), and energy-industry advisors Wood Mackenzie (2035). The exporting nations of OPEC put the peak in 2040 while acknowledging that its new forecast might still prove too optimistic for oil. Notable exceptions include the International Energy Agency, which sees demand “plateauing” but not quite peaking, and the U.S. Energy Information Agency. Both of these agencies advise governments on policy. Revising Down Forecasters see a different future for oil demand after 2020 2019 outlook 2020 outlook Rystad BloombergNEF 115M 115M barrels/day 2035 95 95 2028 peak 75 75 2000 2045 2000 2045 Wood Mackenzie OPEC 115M 115M 2040 2035 95 95 75 75 2000 2040 2000 2045 Note: No 2019 forecast available for BloombergNEF. Sources: Rystad Energy, Wood Mackenzie, BloombergNEF, OPEC Fatih Birol, who leads the IEA, said oil demand can only come down with stronger government policies promoting electric cars and regulating petrochemicals. Even though a peak isn’t guaranteed, he told Bloomberg, “the value of oil is going down” and oil-dependent economies “have to prepare themselves before it’s too late.” The year that lasts a generation Oil prices rose this November, boosted by positive data from coronavirus vaccine trials and recovering demand in Asia. The sooner an effective vaccine can be deployed, the sooner the world can return to some picture of normalcy. But what will that look like? “We’re not going back to the same economy,” U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell cautioned in mid-November. “We’re recovering, but to a different economy.” That new economy means people will continue working more from home, traveling less, and staying in to binge on digital programming. About two thirds of Covid’s impact on oil demand will be from setbacks to the global economy, according to BP’s estimates, and one third will be from permanent changes in behavior. The Pandemic’s Blow to Oil Isn’t Going Away BP predicts that a hobbled economy and changing behaviors will ripple out for decades to come Impact of Covid-19 on oil demand Impact if it isn't brought under control –3.4% 2025 -4.5% 2050 –4.8% 2025 -11.0% 2050 Note: Impacts are measured against BP’s “Rapid” scenario for oil demand. Source: BP Energy Outlook 2020 The gap between BP’s predictions for declining demand and the more bullish forecasts of OPEC and IEA can’t be explained by economic outlooks or remote work. Instead, it comes down to different readings of another shift clearly visible this year: drivers switching to battery-powered cars and trucks. Transportation slurps up more than half of the world’s crude, and three quarters of that goes specifically to wheels on the road. Forecasts for electric vehicles end up shaping the outlook for oil. Electric cars didn’t brake for Covid For the first nine months of 2020, car sales cratered. Every major automaker was affected—with the notable exception of Tesla. The electric automaker sold more cars than ever before. Even as the rest of the economy stood frozen, Tesla posted its longest stretch of profitable quarters and ended the year with inclusion in the S&P 500 stock index. A closer look at the data shows it wasn’t just a Tesla story. Electric vehicles in general managed to thrive even as sales of traditional cars broke down. Both Volkswagen and Daimler saw record-setting declines in total sales, even while sales at their EV divisions doubled. Electric Vehicles Defy the Covid Slump EV sales grew in 2020, while the rest of the industry crumbled Total auto sales EV sales only –50% 0 –50% 0 +50% +100% PSA Group +1,284% Fiat Chrysler Ford R-N-M Alliance SAIC Toyota Volkswagen Daimler General Motors Hyundai–Kia BMW Tesla Note: Sales volumes compare the first three quarters of 2020 with same period in 2019. R-N-M refers to the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Motors alliance. Sources: Bloomberg Intelligence, BloomergNEF, Company filings For backers of electric cars, 2020 was a gut check. It could have been disastrous. Some of the most important EV models to date were launched smack in the middle of the pandemic, including Tesla’s Model Y sport utility vehicle in February and VW’s ID.3 hatchback in September. If consumers rejected them, it could have set back EV investment by years. They did not. At a time when the world turned upside down, sales of electric cars defied gravity. No comeback for fossil-fuel cars During the lockdowns of 2020, city skies cleared of pollution. Bike sales took off. Ethanol intended to be used as a gasoline additive instead made it into hand sanitizer. In many places the faltering economy wasn’t a reason to eliminate environmental regulations—it became a moment to double down. The divided fortunes of internal combustion engines (ICE) and electric drivetrains was first noticed in 2018, a year when EVs bucked the trend of slowing auto sales. Some analysts started to wonder if fossil-fuel vehicles might never return to sales levels of 2017. Back then the idea of Peak ICE was just a theory. The pandemic made it real. The Internal Combustion Engine Is History The pandemic made it clear: Gasoline cars have peaked Internal combustion engine Plug-in hybrid Fuel cell Electric vehicle 100M 50 0 2015 2020 2040 Note: Global passenger vehicle sales. Source: BloombergNEF New Energy Outlook 2020 For peak oil to stick, it will require gradually supplanting more than one billion vehicles in the world. It also means batteries will have to prove themselves in challenging new markets such as freight trucks, which account for more than 15% of oil use, and gas-guzzling pickup trucks, which in 2020 surpassed car sales in the U.S. for the first time. Batteries for everything on the road Automakers are working on 35 new all-electric vehicles to be released next year, according to a tally by BNEF. In 2020, Tesla broke ground on a factory in Austin, Texas, to build pickup trucks and big rigs. Well-funded EV startups Rivian and Lucid Motors put the finishing touches on their make-or-break vehicles. Volkswagen sold the first cars on its new modular platform underpinning dozens of future electric models. Chinese automakers prepared for debuts in new Western markets: BYD’s Tang EV600, Geely’s Polestar 2, Xpeng’s P7. Here are some of the most hotly anticipated models getting ready to hit the streets in 2021. Image of a blue car VW ID.4 Cost: Starts at $40K Range: 250 mi Image of a red car Ford Mustang Mach-E Cost: $43K-$61K Range: 211–300 mi Image of a black car Lucid Air Cost: $77K–$169K Range: Est. 406–517 mi Image of a silver, futuristic Tesla Cybertruck Tesla Cybertruck Cost: $40K–$70K Range: Est. 250-500+ mi Image of a silver pick-up truck Rivian R1T Cost: $68K-$75K Range: Est. 300+ mi Image of a silver car GM Hummer Cost: $80K–$113K Range: 250–350 mi Image of a van in a rural street Rivian Cargo Van Cost: Range: Est. 150 mi Orders from Amazon: 100K by 2030 Image of a white truck Daimler Freightliner eCascadia Cost: Range: Est. 250 mi Image of a white truck Tesla Semi Cost: $150K-$180K Range: 500-600 mi Photographs by (from top-left to bottom-right): Krisztian Bocsi (Bloomberg), David McNew (Getty Images), David Paul Morris (Bloomberg), Frederic J. Brown (AFP/Getty Images), Michael Brochstein (SOPA Images/LightRocket/Getty Images), GMC, Amazon, Peter Steffen (DPA/AFP/Getty Images), Veronique Dupont (AFP/Getty Images) Battery cars achieved a price-parity milestone Batteries are a technology, not a fuel, which means the more that are produced, the cheaper they are to make. In fact, every time the global supply of batteries doubles, the cost drops by about 18%, according to data tracked by BNEF. Historically, EVs have been more expensive to build than gasoline cars. That’s changing. The past year saw the first companies reaching the Holy Grail in battery packs: a cost of $100 per kilowatt hour. That’s the point that analysts have long believed will bring the cost of building electric cars in line with similar gasoline-fueled vehicles. After that, EVs will only get cheaper. Volkswagen, the biggest automaker by cars sold, confirmed that its batteries had reached the $100 threshold for its 2020 ID.3 sedan and upcoming ID.4 compact SUV. China’s CATL, the world’s biggest battery supplier, also claimed $100 battery nirvana as it struck deals across the auto industry. Not to be outdone, Tesla hosted an elaborate “battery day” event in September. The audience watched from a parking lot full of Teslas as CEO Elon Musk showed off plans to manufacture battery cells, a first for any automaker, and to reduce battery costs 56% by 2023. Even if Musk’s estimates are a few years too optimistic—as they sometimes are—it would still put Tesla years ahead of mainstream industry forecasts. Achievement Unlocked: A Magic Number for Batteries In 2020, some batteries were built for $100 per kWh, paving the way for EVs to become the cheapest option $1,183 Industry average 2010 $100/kWh $190 Tesla 2016 $100 Tesla, CATL, Volkswagen 2020 $93 Industry average 2024 $58 Tesla 2023 $61 Industry average 2030 Note: Tesla prices come from a 2016 disclosure and Musk’s forecasts for 2020 costs and for a 56% drop from industry average by 2023. Sources: BloombergNEF, company statements Mass-market EVs became possible only with the falling price of batteries. What comes next could be a virtuous cycle of cost declines. As battery prices improve, customers will snap up more electric cars, making battery prices even cheaper. Europe’s electric push Europe has taken back the electric-vehicle crown from China. This year, tough new EU fuel-efficiency regulations kicked in just before the virus did. Consumers responded. In oil-rich Norway, more than 70% of new cars sold in 2020 came with a plug. EV market share across Europe soared to 11% of all new cars in the third quarter, nearly doubling the adoption rate in China. Europe Retakes the EV Lead Two views: Market share of electric cars versus total quarterly sales Europe China More than 1 in 10 cars sold in Europe had a plug in Q3 For the first time in three years, Europe sold more EVs than China 11% 371K 327K 6% 2016 Q1 2020 Q3 2016 Q1 2020 Q3 Sources: BloombergNEF, EV Volumes Under Europe’s new fuel-efficiency rules, companies that fail to reduce their emissions must pay steep fines or else pay a company with cleaner cars to pool emissions and avoid the fees. That option has been a boon for Tesla, creating a revenue stream big enough to pay for its first European factory. Tesla broke ground in Berlin during the pandemic and will start producing cars there next year. In China, meanwhile, the pandemic provided an unexpected boost for EVs. As part of a pandemic stimulus, EV subsidies that were set to expire in April were extended through 2022. Then in September, the country shocked the world with a pledge to eliminate the net carbon dioxide emissions of the world’s most polluting economy by 2060. Japan and South Korea followed, vowing net-zero emissions by 2050. The last geopolitical piece to fall into place in 2020 was the U.S., which is responsible for burning one out of every five barrels of oil in the world. President Trump had pulled the U.S. from the Paris Climate Accord, slashed vehicle efficiency standards, and allowed clean-energy subsidies to expire. Then he lost the election. One of President-elect Joe Biden’s first moves afterwards was to name former Secretary of State John Kerry as special envoy for climate, a new cabinet-level position. Kerry, an architect of the Paris pact, vowed to rejoin it on the new administration’s first day. A push to set a 2050 end-date for U.S. emissions and a drive to clean up the U.S. electrical grid are likely to follow. Now the three biggest global powers—the U.S., China, and Europe—are poised to push again on policies that accelerate the transition from oil. Together, the three are responsible for burning more than half of all the world’s crude. Shifting winds of politics aren’t included in most energy forecasts, says Nat Bullard of BloombergNEF. The geopolitical backdrop gives further credence to the idea that oil demand will plateau and decline, rather than breach new highs. “This moment we’re in has accelerated a lot of change and, amazingly, kept a lot of climate-change policy on the books that could have easily been reneged on,” Bullard says. California sets a road block for gas cars There are policy tools available for weaning the world from oil-burning vehicles. One is to simply ban them. Dozens of cities, states, countries and regions have set such targets to phase out new sales of gasoline cars. This year California joined the bunch, setting a phaseout goal of 2035. If California were a country, it would rank above Russia among the top 10 car markets in the world. The U.K. likewise moved its goal to 2035, up from 2040 previously. Prime Minister Boris Johnson also required that any new car sold after 2030 must at least have a hybrid drivetrain capable of running on a battery. The Big Ban Theory California joined 12 countries setting an end date for new fossil-fuel vehicles, and the U.K. moved its target forward from 2040 Slovenia Netherlands Iceland Denmark Canada U.K. Scotland Norway France California Ireland Israel Sweden 2M vehicles sold in 2018 2025 2030 2035 2040 Note: Countries and states are sized by vehicle sales in 2018. Scotland is covered by the U.K. ban but has set a more aggressive timeline for itself. Sources: BloombergNEF, IHS Markit, CNCDA Most of these bans aren’t codified into laws—at least not with repercussions for cheaters. Instead, policymakers use them to support ambitious policies along the way that are necessary for hitting the target. California has successfully used similar long-term targets to shape its renewable-energy policies, making it one of at least a dozen U.S. states that have policies to eventually mandate entirely green electricity grids. 21st century power transitions At a London hotel in February, BP’s new chief executive, Bernard Looney, delivered his first speech from a podium bedazzled with a green “Reimagine BP” logo. He described one of the industry’s most far-reaching plans to cut net emissions to zero in 30 years. Two months later, Royal Dutch Shell said that it, too, would zero out emissions by 2050. In May came Total SA, France’s biggest oil producer. Spain’s Repsol and Italy’s Eni had made their own pledges back in 2019. While key details varied—and were sometimes conspicuously lacking— “net zero emissions” became a sort of demarcation line drawn through the oil industry. Lined up against the old guard are the oil companies that no longer want to be known as oil companies. It’s difficult to tell which came first for the transitioners. Did a changing outlook for long-term demand result in an overhaul in business strategies? Or were the forecasts for peak oil meant to justify a new business strategy born of public pressure? Perhaps a bit of both—and for the end result, it may not matter. For investors, one thing is clear: the oil patch has lost its shimmer. Exxon, which was the most valuable company in the world as recently as 2013, was removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average index this year. It’s now vying to remain above the market value of NextEra Energy Inc., a Florida-based mega-utility focused on wind and solar, which briefly overtook it in October. Tesla’s stock this year has been on a record-breaking tear, surpassing the value of the next five automakers combined. Stock markets reward growth. Just look at Amazon’s sky-high stock price back when online retail was still a novelty or Netflix’s valuation when cable-TV still dominated. When it comes to the future of oil demand, the market is speaking very clearly. 21st Century Power Transitions Tesla’s stock value tops the next five automakers—combined NextEra overtook Exxon for the first time in October $300B $500B 250 150 0 0 Jan. 1 Nov. 25 Jan. 1 Nov. 25 Note: Top five automakers after Tesla are Volkswagen, Toyota, Daimler, General Motors and BMW. Source: Bloomberg The term “peak oil” didn’t always refer to demand. It started with the premise that the world’s supply of crude was finite. Eventually no matter how hard drillers tried, they wouldn’t be able to pull more oil out of the ground. A transportation crisis would ensue. The peak oil hypothesis dominated economic thinking for decades. But it turned out that with fracking, deep-water drilling, and oil sands, there’s a lot more oil than we once thought. More recently, the idea of a demand-driven peak took hold. Petrostates fear it, environmentalists pray for it. ‘The writing is all over the bloody wall’ The reason so much attention is given to peak oil is that it can be a turning point from a market where oil is scarce to one where there’s more cheap crude than people know what to do with. The risk of investing in new oil supplies increases. Investors pull back. Political power wanes. In many ways, Big Oil already began transitioning to an era of excess supply during the oil crash of 2014 to 2016. In the years preceding that crisis, oil prices averaged roughly $110 per barrel and most forecasts imagined similar prices for decades to come. Then came a glut of unexpected supply, driving prices down to less than $40. The value of oil assets was written down by more than $500 billion, according to data collected by research firm Evaluate Energy. The outlook never recovered. In the first half of 2020, when oil demand suddenly vanished in the pandemic, the industry wrote down a fresh $170 billion. For U.S. companies, it was the equivalent of 18% of proven reserves. That’s money wiped from the books because companies no longer believed in the value of their oil deposits. The 2020 write-downs are exceeded only by the second half of 2015, the peak of the last crisis. And there’s more to come. Exxon on Monday logged record charges of as much as $20 billion. For the five Western supermajors, the 2020 write-downs have already exceeded the last crisis, by far. If oil companies were only focused on a short-term pandemic crash, BNEF oil analyst David Doherty believes the response would not have been so severe. These charges are more about faltering confidence in long-term demand—peak oil. “The writing is all over the bloody wall,” Doherty says. The Future of Oil Gets a Write–Down More than $170B wiped from company balance sheets–with more to come 2014 2019 0 125 First–half 2020 $200B Note: Data includes public disclosures from more than 400 oil and gas companies. Source: Evaluate Energy Most oil forecasts—at least the business-as-usual scenarios—estimate that even if oil demand peaks, it will continue to play a defining role in energy markets for the foreseeable future. Markets for petrochemicals will continue to grow, and both aviation and shipping will be relatively untouched. Don’t be so sure. The same market pressures being applied to road transport and moving into other industries. Alternatives to petrochemicals are under development. Small electric planes and hybrid aircraft for longer distance are moving out of the prototype stage. It’s only a matter of time before tanker ships start running on hydrogen. Once a technology reaches scale and price parity, conditions can change dramatically. That happened with coal, which was expected to dominate for decades—until cheaper natural gas and renewable energy came along. U.S. coal demand peaked in 2008. Nine years later Peabody Energy, the world’s largest coal producer, was bankrupt. Sunshine is the new oil For the last century, transport fuels and electricity generation have been almost entirely separate industries. Oil was for vehicles, coal was for power. Drillers versus miners, petrostates versus power utilities. There was very little crossover. For years, the oil industry has watched what was happening to coal and insisted it wouldn’t happen to them. Back in 2015, ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance told Bloomberg it would take another 50 years for electric cars to have a material impact on oil demand—probably not in his lifetime. That was the widely held view just five years ago. Few in the oil industry would make that case today. With the electrification of transport, the distinction between liquid fuels and power markets is blurring. Solar power is now the cheapest form of new energy capacity in most of the world, which means that as power markets grow to meet the new demand from EVs, oil is being largely displaced by power from the sun. Forecasting energy transitions is painstaking work. For almost two decades, the International Energy Agency’s base scenario has consistently underestimated the rise of solar power. Every year, the models expected the rate of growth to level off, for the industry of solar installers to stop hiring. Every year it did the opposite. This record shows the hazards of basing decisions about the future on today’s policies and technologies, especially when history shows that neither stands still. The IEA changed its view on solar this year. In the introduction to its 2020 World Energy Outlook, the IEA’s Birol dubbed solar “the new king of electricity.” He wrote that “based on today’s policy settings, it is on track to set new records for deployment every year after 2022.” Solar: ‘King of Electricity’ Every year they said solar would plateau, and every year it set new records IEA’s outlook for new installations was overhauled in October 250GW 2020 2019 125 2018 2017 Actual 2016 2014 2010–12 2002–8 0 2001 2020 2040 Sources: International Energy Agency, BloombergNEF, Auke Hoekstra When discussing their forecasts, energy analysts take great pains to point out that they are not making predictions of what will happen but rather presenting different scenarios about what could happen. As Birol frequently points out, the timing of peak oil depends entirely on what the world does next. | |||
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| DRR Top Comp |
Back in 2015, ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance told Bloomberg it would take another 50 years for electric cars to have a material impact on oil demand—probably not in his lifetime. That was the widely held view just five years ago. Few in the oil industry would make that case today. Covid is a Agenda 21 enhancer, to speed up the the snowball to hell. Keep complying. Keep buying china garbage. Keep doing what you're doing, elites love your work for their cause, to transform the world in the way they see fit. Technocracy is not a political system. It's a scientific dictatorship. | |||
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By 2035, gasoline will be $150.00 a gallon. Quart of oil $120.00. That's how they'll get rid of internal combustion engines. Politburo will be the only ones able to afford to drive them. | |||
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| DRR S/Pro |
One has to think; without Covid would there have been a peak? No IMHO. Have they figured a way to control or divert the market? Yes. What happened to the oil stock pile while we were idling along? The market I believe -if we continue on pace will be back by the end of the year. If we remain Covid-less. Raceless in California! | |||
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This is interesting here in Texas the rolling blackouts they had during the bad freeze was all the ones with the new smart meters. I know one guy who actually had to pay extra to have the old style meter but he said he never lost power one time. He said the power outages were not downed lines but selective power turned off by electric company through Smart meter. https://postimg.cc/gallery/np3zpruo/ "Dunning-Kruger Effect" -a type of Cognitive bias where people with little expertise or ability assume they have superior expertise or ability. This overestimation occurs as a result of the fact that they do not have enough knowledge to know they don't have enough knowledge. Before you argue with someone ask yourself, "Is this person mentally mature enough to grasp the concept of a different perspective?" If not there is no point to argue. 4X NE2 CHAMPION. 2020 TDRA NE2 Champion | |||
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I wouldn't have been without power for more than 15 minutes. That's easily fixable. Glad you mentioned it, because now I'll be on that pronto, in the event the power goes down here. | |||
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| DRR Pro |
Mining Our Way to Clean Energy.... | |||
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If oil companies were only focused on a short-term pandemic crash, BNEF oil analyst David Doherty believes the response would not have been so severe. These charges are more about faltering confidence in long-term demand—peak oil. “The writing is all over the bloody wall,” Doherty says. The Future of Oil Gets a Write–Down More than $170B wiped from company balance sheets–with more to come They tell us right here, the writing is on the bloody wall. If you combine all this evidence and unemotionally look at it rationally, it'll say to you covid killed the oil industry. As planned I believe. They've managed to destroy millions and millions of jobs & business's, 700,000 jobs a week for 12 months straight, over a flu with a fatality rate of the flu. Anyone who believes we'll ever get back to normal in our lifetime, is delusional. The fallout hasn't even begun yet. This has been an Agenda. The crushing of the oil industry, just one aspect of the agenda. | |||
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| DRR Sportsman |
there is a guy around our area that has a tesla that runs 6.80s in the 1/8. it is impressive for what it is. ep | |||
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There's a lady in my neighborhood with a Tesla, when I declined her call out for a street race with The Ripper. Within days she came by insisting I drive her Tesla. The tire fryer BBC 71 Chevelle SS I just did the engine, is a helluva lot more fun, by a long shot to drive, than a Tesla. It'll be a sad day when everyone is driving electric cars, I say we revolt now before it's too late!! This message has been edited. Last edited by: Mike Rietow, | |||
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| DRR Sportsman |
One of the many issues facing EV production and mass sales is taxation-and roads. EV's are typically heavier than comparable gasoline powered vehicles. Also, they don't use gasoline (obviously!) Normally the roads are "repaired" (LOL!) and built with funds from gas and diesel taxes. If the majority of Americans are in EV's how do they plan to take care of the roads? "Pay by th e mile". How is that going to work? I mean, are they simply going to ask you how many miles you drove last year? That's going to work (1.2 miles sir!). So that begs the question, how are they gonna track that? GPS device? That brings on a whole other set of challenges (privacy, among other things) that nobody has thought much about. Send officials to everyone's home? LOL! How much does that cost the taxpayers? Pay by the mile is already being tried in 2 states that I know of, perhaps more that I don't know of. My insurance company has attempted to contact me several times regarding pay-by-the-mile insurance coverage, which I promptly denied. Letters went into the "file". Then electrical. The Tesla charger must be on an 80A circuit. For many households that means installing a dedicated charging station. At my place that also means that someone is going to have to pay to install a larger panel in the garage, which can't be done without upgrading the wiring from the panel to the meter to 2/0 miniumum, then from the meter to the pole (about 400') from 1/0 to 2/0, which means the underground pipe has to be dug up and changed to 2", along with the pipe that runs up the pole. Do you think I'm paying for that? No! I already did when I put the shop up, which is only a 210' run from the pole, and that cost me $1600 (grand total). I figure with all the cost increases, $2500 wouldn't be out of line to have all that done now, to the house. I am not paying it. If they're forcing us to buy EV's they're going to have to figure this out. On their own. Additionally how about the grid? We saw in the winter of 2021 that the grid can't keep up with current demand. So I am understanding that if the demand is greater than the available generation, there should be a need for more generation, right? That means another or more power plants. Great. BUT--we can't use natural gas, coal, or any other fossil fuel to generate electricity, leaving wind, solar, and hydro generation. The wind never blows here. Wind is out. The sun only shines during the day here. Maybe it shines all day in Mexifornia but not here. Also, the amount of daylight is cut really short in the winter AND 4.5 days out of 7 in a week's time it's so cloudy here that solar would never be a viable option. Local schools have purchased land (or taken it) from landowners and built solar arrays. Millions of dollars spent, and they generate just a very small amount of electricity to power the schools, I am told that they really didn't make much of a dent in usage especially in the winter. In winter they need more electricity to run the heater(s) and there is very little sunlight available to make electricity with so they don't even supplement 10%. In the summer, kids ain't at school. August-November the air conditioners run full blast to keep the school house at 70 degrees, with Solar generating approx 15% of the needed KwH. If you put the numbers on paper, it doesn't add up once you figure in all the costs. It only makes sense to the out-of-touch government. Hydro? Takes a very special river and the right geography to dam a river and build a hydro plant, of which is not always available. At this time the only option for reliable generation is nuclear and fairy dust. Poof. Idiots! And.....they're (locally) shutting down the nat gas plant, putting more strain on the hydro and nuke plants. Geniuses aren't they? No plan. Typical of anything federal or even state govenments. On some EV's Range is decent on flat ground with the wind at your back. Out here where it's hilly? LOL...cut the range by about 65% on average, is what I'm told by those who have EV's. That's about 150 miles or so based on owner feedback. So let me get this straight. You paid $40,000 for a car that only goes 150 miles and needs a refill I mean recharge? You're an idiot. People in the nut house I mean white house have no clue about the realities of this, at least given current technology. No clue whatsoever. I have done a little work on EV's as of lately at the shop and nothing is particularly easy, of course nothing is easy to work on anymore but there is more complexity with EV's. And the biggest issue is disposal. I don't do all the EV work, only fill-in when the other tech is snowed under which has been more often lately. Typically when a battery is replaced, they have to document it's replacement per epa. Then they have to document it's proper disposal to a certified recycler, and there is not one here. Thus, we pile them up out back until "the truck" can get here to pick them up. They charge us to dispose of them and obviously we pass that onto consumers as we just can't "eat" those costs just like anything else. I asked the driver last time what they do with them, and they said that right now they just get piled up and dismantled but the big issue is that they just can't "dispose" of the nasty stuff, weekly inspections I am told and nobody has any idea how to dispose of it. Some of the pack is reusable or recyclable but not all of it. Another big issue. Stuff is similar to Nuke waste, there is no making it go away easily and it's bad stuff. For years tires were like that too, but now we've come to recycle them for other uses without just burning them. Perhaps a solution for battery packs will follow suit. On golf cars, we have to replace batteries often (lead-acid, which includes agm). It costs to send old batteries away. They recycle them, 100% or close to 100%, but keep in mind that the only lead smelting plant in the USA was closed (Doe Run) due to strict standards set forth by...Obama's administration. So I'm told they send most of the recovered lead to, guess where. China and Mexico. I can't speak for the truth of it, just going off of what the battery company rep has told us. The left says that Doe Run was closed by the Bush administration, however I am understanding that it wasn't enforced much until Obama came into the picture....and his admin went after all sorts of little federal guidelines, as I am a perfect example of in a fed case dealing with the corrupt IRS-which I have zero trust in. Gas prices took a big hike as you all know. The irony of it is that this happened right after whistlebritches took office in January, and signed a bunch of EO's of which some many not even know the content of (other than himself). So this begs the question, is the POTUS responsible for hiking the fuel prices? If this is the case, can it be proven? If yes, do it for crying out loud! The Left would have done it to Trump in a new york second, but what about now? We just gonna sit back and say "oh well"? No I sure ain't. Daily phone conversations with legislators' offices as of lately. I may not be doing any good but I am certainly making my presence known, and maybe I'll become a pain in their backside at some point, enough to plant the seeds. So I look for the current fed to try a bunch more stupid crap that makes no sense to anyone but them, and costs the working class Americans a few trillion more dollars when it comes to EV's. As of right now, there is no set-in-stone plan in place. They can't figure out how they're gonna make all this happen in 10 years' time. There's just no feasible way. | |||
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| DRR S/Pro |
Being an Old School US citizen, I think you may underestimate the power of an authoritarian government. On-Star has been on GM cars for many years now. Even if you don't subscribe they still know where you are. So mileage through them or new legislation is a piece of cake. Even mandatory annual vehicle inspection could be used to report mileage. Privacy is a non issue in today's world. The insurance companies are promoting discounts if you'll simply download their app that tracks your driving habits. To include stopping, starting and I don't know what all. So don't think for one moment "revenue enhancement" is an obstacle. Illegitimi non carborundum | |||
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